- Bitcoin’s greed index has peaked just once, keeping sentiment in limbo.
- Traders are favoring quick flips over long-term conviction, dulling Bitcoin’s ‘high-risk, high-reward’ edge.
If history tells us anything, consolidation is often the calm before a breakout – big money fends off a pullback, while weak HODLing delays a supply shock.
Bitcoin [BTC] hit $100K over a week ago, yet it refuses to drop below $92K. Is this the buildup to a breakout, or is another pullback about to shake the market?
Decoding the current market mood
Since the New Year, Bitcoin’s greed index has peaked just once, with sentiment mostly neutral. History shows sustained greed fuels rallies – just like BTC’s run to $106K last December.
Source: BGeometrics
Bitcoin’s ‘high-risk, high-reward’ edge is fading as traders favor quick flips over long-term bets. The market hasn’t slipped into “extreme” fear, which often signals a true market bottom.
This holding pattern may not last. Nearly $500 million have flowed out of BTC ETFs in three days. Whales are cashing out, selling pressure is rising, and derivatives are flashing warning signs.
If this trend holds, a breakout may be off the table. Instead, fear could take over, dragging BTC down to $88K before its next big move.
Bitcoin at a crossroads
Unlike past cycles, macro forces are steering this one. The Crypto Volatility Index (CVI) is nearing pre-election lows – a bullish signal.
Yet, with RSI still above the bottom and MACD flashing bearish, the charts aren’t screaming “buy” Bitcoin just yet.
Source: CVI.finance
This supports AMBCrypto’s earlier take: a pullback could be the next move before any real breakout.
Adding to the uncertainty, leverage in derivatives is hitting new highs, making a full-blown deleveraging phase far from certain. Unlike past cycles, this one doesn’t promise a parabolic rally.
Instead, BTC could defy expectations as sentiment remains stuck in limbo. It’s still missing the “greed” trigger needed for liftoff.
