A chart analysis shared by cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe indicates a bullish divergence between Bitcoin and gold, a pattern that has preceded periods of relative outperformance for Bitcoin in previous instances.
Summary
- Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identifies a bullish divergence between Bitcoin and gold.
- Historical precedent: Similar divergences in Q4 2022 and Q3 2024 preceded periods where Bitcoin outperformed gold, suggesting a potential repeat scenario.
- Potential rotation signal: The pattern may indicate capital shifting from safe havens to risk-on assets, positioning Bitcoin to lead the next phase of market performance versus gold.
The chart in van de Poppe’s post on X compares Bitcoin against gold on the daily timeframe. While gold continues to trend lower, Bitcoin has shifted into consolidation, with momentum indicators beginning to turn higher, according to the analysis. The divergence suggests selling pressure is fading on Bitcoin even as gold remains under pressure.
Van de Poppe identified two previous periods where a similar divergence appeared: the fourth quarter of 2022, which coincided with the end of Bitcoin’s bear market, and the third quarter of 2024, shortly before Bitcoin accelerated sharply. In both cases, Bitcoin outperformed gold in the months that followed, according to the analyst.
The analyst stated that the current setup mirrors those earlier conditions, adding weight to the signal. Van de Poppe characterized the pattern as potentially indicating the early stage of a larger rotation, rather than a short-term trade.
The chart analysis suggests that Bitcoin holding steady while gold weakens could imply capital rotating away from traditional safe havens and toward risk-on assets. Van de Poppe stated that if the divergence remains intact, the probability increases that Bitcoin leads the next phase of market performance versus gold.
The pattern indicates that when gold declines and Bitcoin does not follow, historical data suggests a potential shift in relative performance between the two assets, according to the analyst’s interpretation.